Honduras Economy News

The IMF's technical mission arrives October 20 to conduct the sixth and final review of Honduras's 2023–2026 agreement, a process lasting through November 2 that officials expect will unlock a final disbursement of about $120 million for the balance of payments.

Honduras's public external debt reached $11.31 billion as of August 2026, up $571 million from December 2025, driven by new borrowing of $1.52 billion against debt repayments of $946 million, according to the Central Bank.

Honduras's state electric company (Enee) loses approximately L8.8 billion (roughly $352 million) in the first half of 2026 due to theft, technical losses, and billing failures, forcing the government to subsidize tariffs rather than pass costs to consumers.

Congress approved transferring 2.15 billion lempiras (about $86 million) from a small-business fund to Banhprovi, Honduras's development and housing bank, to expand lending for small and medium enterprises, productive activities, and home purchases through private financial institutions.

Although the Central Bank reported a strong rebound in foreign investment to $468.3 million in the second quarter of 2026, economists warn that most flows are reinvestment by existing companies rather than new capital, reflecting Honduras's weak regional competitiveness.

Honduras's public external debt reached 27.6% of GDP as of August 2026, a level the central bank says indicates low risk of unsustainable public debt.

Central Bank president Roberto Lagos met with IMF Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura in Bangkok to assess Honduras's economic program ahead of the sixth and final review, with both sides emphasizing fiscal discipline and structural reforms.

Available resources in Honduras's banking system grew 22.7% as of September 24, 2026, driven partly by increased domestic investment in government and central bank securities.

A UNAH economist warns that Honduras may receive over $12 billion in remittances in 2026, but that dependence on migrant money discourages investment in productive industries and exports.

The National Association of Industrialists says international tensions, Middle East conflict, rising fuel and energy costs, and dollar fluctuations account for roughly one-third to two-fifths of Honduras's inflation, with the Central Bank expected to revise its economic forecasts in coming weeks.

The Public Ministry's Special Fiscal Crimes Unit secured a L15.7 million (roughly $630,000) payment from a hardware-store owner in Comayagua accused of tax evasion after a forensic audit found the company had understated import costs on its 2022 tax declaration.

The central bank auctioned $114.5 million in its foreign-exchange market on October 13, setting the weighted average exchange rate at L26.8927 per dollar for October 14.

As of August 2026, loans account for 74.2% of Honduras's external public financing, sovereign bonds represent 21.2%, and other debt instruments make up the remaining 4.6%.

The central government accounts for 86% of Honduras's public-sector external debt, with the central bank responsible for 13.2% and other public entities holding the remaining 0.8%.

Economist Guillermo Matamoros warns that Honduras faces obstacles—global trade reconfigurations, drought effects, high production costs, and weakening agriculture and manufacturing—that threaten the central bank's 3–4% GDP growth forecast for 2026, with about 47,000 jobs lost so far this year.

Honduras's net international reserves grew by $1.1 billion since late January, reaching $11.4 billion as of October 5 and providing 6.6 months of import coverage.

The Central Bank of Honduras auctioned $90.1 million in its October 12 foreign-exchange sale, setting the weighted average exchange rate at L26.9020 per dollar for October 13.

Honduras's Central Bank forecasts year-over-year inflation of 5.0% by December 2026, declining through September 2028 to settle within the monetary authority's target range of 4.0% ± 1.0 percentage point.

Honduras's business-confidence index (ICAE) reached 56.7 points in September 2026, the highest for that month in four years, and remained in expansion territory (above 50.0) for a ninth consecutive month.

Honduras's international reserves reached $1.24 billion in accumulation through September 24, strengthening the country's external position and providing coverage for 6.6 months of imports.

A World Bank report warns that artificial intelligence could gradually automate physical manufacturing tasks in Honduras's garment industry, which employs about 140,000 workers directly, making workforce retraining and technical skills crucial to protect jobs.

Honduras's Energy Ministry froze diesel and domestic cooking-gas prices as of October 12 while allowing gasoline to rise, using temporary subsidies to shield consumers from international market swings.

Honduran businesses must file and pay sales tax (ISV) by October 12, with the tax authority offering online filing through its virtual office.

Year-over-year inflation on tradeable goods—those subject to international price swings—hit 6.95%, driven mainly by global fuel price fluctuations and rising shipping costs, the Central Bank reported.

Honduras's monthly consumer-price inflation decelerated to 0.48% in September from 0.79% in August, driven by slower price growth in food, beverages, transport, and personal care.

Regular gasoline, kerosene, and vehicle gas will rise by up to L2.50 per gallon (about $0.10) in Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula beginning Monday, October 12, while diesel prices remain frozen.

Year-over-year inflation in Honduras reached 6.28% in September, exceeding the Central Bank's tolerance range, according to the bank's monthly bulletin.

According to 2021 data, 68% of Hondurans aged 65 and older live in poverty, and 69% receive no pension or work income, a crisis driven by informal employment and gaps in pension-system coverage that leaves families to provide support.

Honduras's labor ministry released lists of 2,869 candidates selected for final interviews starting October 12 to fill 2,000–3,000 temporary agricultural jobs in Spain offering contracts up to nine months and monthly pay exceeding €1,200.

Economic Development Secretary Eddy Ordoñez said the government would support Comayagüela traders protesting Chinese competition by enforcing tax compliance, preventing underpriced imports, and helping diversify their business offerings.