Monetary Policy

Honduras's central bank says higher net foreign reserves expanded money supply through currency conversion, but officials have partially offset that expansion by absorbing liquidity from the financial system.

The Central Bank of Honduras announced measures to reduce inflation, which reached 5.83% in June, by increasing open-market operations to drain excess money from the financial system starting in August, aiming to return inflation to its 4% target by year-end.

Economist Julio Raudales says the Central Bank of Honduras's inflation target of 5–6% is reachable if monetary policy remains disciplined and external shocks do not occur, though he cautions that balancing price control with economic growth remains a key challenge.

Economist Ismael Zepeda says the Central Bank will struggle to control inflation through monetary policy given international conflicts raising fuel costs and a planned electricity rate increase in the third quarter, though the bank aims to absorb excess money supply and cut monetary emissions by 11%.

Active interest rates on business loans have decelerated across commerce, industry, and services, tracking softer deposit rates, according to Central Bank data.

Honduras's central bank allocated $90.8 million in its July 20 foreign-exchange auction, setting the weighted average exchange rate at L26.7638 per dollar for July 21.

Honduras's net international reserves have accumulated $1.25 billion since January 27, the Central Bank reported as of July 17, with import coverage holding steady at 6.7 months.

The Central Bank of Honduras is updating and relaxing the deadlines for exporters to bring foreign-currency earnings back into the country, aiming to simplify operations for the export sector.

Family remittances to Honduras reached $6.59 billion in the first half of 2026, a 11.9% jump from the same period last year and above the Central Bank's projected 3.5% growth; if the trend holds, annual remittances may exceed $13.5 billion.

Honduras registered a 5.83% annual inflation rate in June, the highest in Central America, with economist Dante Mossi warning that subsidy removals and price increases are pushing the poor toward extreme hardship and reducing consumer spending.

Juan Carlos Hernández, president of Honduras's Colegio de Economistas, defended the central bank's decision to hold its benchmark interest rate steady, arguing that lower rates would risk fueling inflation by increasing money in circulation without proportional growth in goods and services.

Honduras's banking system holds nearly 200 billion lempiras (about $8 billion) in excess liquidity, and economists say the central bank must manage the surplus and maintain its policy rate to avoid stoking inflation.

Honduras's net international reserves reached $1.29 billion as of July 10, up from January 27, with import coverage holding steady at 6.7 months.

The Central Bank of Honduras forecasts year-over-year inflation of 4.97% at the close of 2026, with a declining trend that would bring it within the monetary authority's target range of 3.0–5.0% by June 2028.

Economic analyst Nancy Ochoa projects the Honduran lempira will depreciate by 2.7% for the full year 2026 if current trends continue.

Economist Amparo Canales says Honduras must reassess its economic outlook due to unstable oil prices and rising international inflation, requiring a review of the monetary program in the third quarter as the economic environment shifts.

A Fosdeh economist warns that roughly 37 billion lempiras in unaccounted money emitted by the previous administration could stoke inflation, though he notes that inflation stems from multiple causes including import dependence, fuel costs, and climate-driven agricultural shortfalls.

Year-over-year inflation in Honduras eased to 5.83% in June, moving toward the central bank's medium-term target range of 4.00% plus or minus 1 percentage point.

Roberto Lagos, president of the Central Bank of Honduras, said July inflation data should show a deceleration, and the bank will review monetary-policy instruments to reduce excess money supply without harming credit growth, which has risen 6.7% in the first seven months of 2026.

Former president of Honduras's economists' association Liliana Castillo projects the lempira could depreciate to 27 per US dollar by September if it continues declining at its current rate of about 6 centavos monthly, a gradual depreciation she says would cushion domestic prices better than a sharper drop.

The Honduran central bank will overhaul its monetary program following the IMF's successful review of Honduras's economic plan, which unlocks a disbursement of roughly $240 million and aims to move toward a more flexible exchange market while maintaining inflation control.

The Asfura administration has sent a letter of intent to IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva as the current three-year, $822 million program nears completion, though officials say no decision has been made yet on whether to pursue a new agreement.

Honduras's net international reserves have accumulated $1.346 billion since January 27, with import coverage rising to 6.7 months, according to the central bank.

The Central Bank of Honduras kept its policy rate (TPM) at 5.75%, with interbank and central bank window rates aligned to that benchmark.

Credit to Honduras's private sector continues to grow favorably, driven by domestic-currency financing to businesses in productive sectors including services, real estate, and agriculture.

Honduras's banking system is reallocating resources toward domestic investments, particularly voluntary holdings of Central Bank securities and instruments issued by the government and state power utility ENEE.

The Central Bank of Honduras says its external position is solid, supported by rising foreign-exchange reserves and favorable inflows that have maintained a positive net flow of hard currency.

Central Bank President Roberto Lagos said Honduras must prepare monetary and fiscal measures aligned with IMF recommendations to contain inflation, while currently monitoring how fuel prices ripple through the economy; he indicated no immediate rate adjustment is needed given US Federal Reserve policy.

Honduras's net foreign reserves have accumulated $1.124 billion since January 27, the Central Bank reported, with import coverage holding steady at 6.6 months.

The Central Bank of Honduras released its updated 2026–2027 monetary program, projecting inflation will converge to its 4.0% ± 1 percentage-point target by December 2026 and tightening money-supply measures to combat price pressures that reached 5.83% in June.