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The Central Bank forecasts annual inflation reaching 4.98% by December 2026, within its target range of 4.0% ± 1.0 percentage point, with further declines expected ahead.

Year-on-year inflation in Honduras reached 6.20% in August 2026, driven by rising fuel, food, and electricity costs amid adverse weather that has damaged agricultural output and pushed 64% of the goods and services in the consumer basket higher.

Honduras's Energy Ministry announced price increases for all fuel types effective September 14, with premium gasoline and kerosene rising by up to L3.86 per gallon in Tegucigalpa and similar increases in San Pedro Sula, while domestic cooking gas remains subsidized.

Escalating international crude prices and Middle East tensions risk pushing up fuel costs and inflation in Honduras, squeezing household budgets and business operating costs across the import-dependent economy.

Honduras's petroleum distributors' association is warning that rising international diesel prices could push up transport and food costs, and is calling on the government to adopt a long-term energy policy.

About four of every ten Hondurans lack enough income to cover basic needs for food, transport, health, and education, even when employed, as informal work, wage stagnation, and inflation leave millions financially vulnerable.

Diesel fuel reached an all-time high of L145.69 per gallon (about $5.82), surpassing the previous 2022 peak and raising concerns about cascading increases in transport, logistics, and consumer goods prices across Honduras.

Premium gasoline, regular gasoline, diesel, and kerosene prices increased Sept. 7, with diesel climbing L2.46 per gallon to L145.69 (about $5.80) in Tegucigalpa, while domestic cooking gas held steady under government subsidy.

Economic Development Minister Eddy Ordóñez warned merchants and producers that those unable to justify recent egg-carton price increases above 14 lempiras face fines of 1,000 to 10,000 minimum wages and possible month-long business closures.

An economist argues the Central Bank's strategy of allowing lempira devaluation to accumulate international reserves is driving inflation and eroding household purchasing power, despite reserves of $11.5 billion being ample to stabilize the currency.

Economist Henry Rodríguez projects the lempira will weaken to 27.20–27.25 per dollar by year-end and urges Honduras to strengthen domestic production and tighten monetary policy to combat devaluation that drives up consumer prices.

The US dollar reached L27.00 per dollar, extending lempira weakness that economists warn will raise prices for imported goods, fuel, and agricultural inputs across Honduras's economy.

The Honduran lempira has depreciated to 26.98 per dollar and economist Dante Mossi warns the currency could break the 27-lempira barrier by late September or early October, potentially raising prices for imported goods including fuel.

Consumer defender Adalid Irías warned that basic-basket prices could exceed L17,000 (about $680) by year-end, driven by holiday demand, drought conditions, and the broader dry corridor affecting 75 municipalities.

Honduras's official cost-of-living measure now includes 405 items—housing, utilities, transportation, healthcare, and digital services—reflecting the true expenses Honduran families face beyond groceries.

Adalid Irías, president of a consumer-advocacy group (Defco), called on Honduras's consumer-protection office to meet with producers to identify causes of recent food-price increases, citing eggs rising 6 lempiras (about $0.24) per carton and other staples climbing 3–4 lempiras, partly attributed to drought and higher livestock-feed costs.

Consumer-protection group Fundación Artículo 19 puts the monthly basic food basket for a five-person household at over L16,000 (about $640), far above the government's figure of roughly L8,600.

Honduras's currency depreciated to near L27 per dollar as of early August, prompting economists to warn of pressure on import prices while the Central Bank says the decline is moderate and driven by normal supply-and-demand forces.

BCH president Roberto Lagos projects inflation will continue easing to about 5.5% in August from nearly 6%, while international reserves reached a record $11.7 billion, equivalent to seven months of import coverage and strengthening financial stability.

The Central Bank of Honduras forecasts full-year 2026 GDP growth of 3 to 4 percent, supported by agricultural exports and household consumption, though the outlook depends heavily on global oil and coffee prices and international trade tensions.

Diesel prices have surged 69.8% since January to L141.67 per gallon and premium gasoline 49.6%, with another increase taking effect August 3 that economists warn will drive up transport and food costs.

Honduras's basic basket of essential goods has climbed to around L17,000 (about $680) in 2026, driven by a 24% increase in electricity rates and volatile fuel prices that consumer advocates say are pushing food staples out of reach for poor Hondurans.

Honduras's Central Bank is implementing measures to absorb excess money circulating in the economy and stabilize resources, as inflation reached 5.83% year-over-year in June, while president Roberto Lagos cited supply-driven pressures and limited scope for interest-rate policy.

ASJ economist Obed García warned that rising energy costs and imported inflation could push Honduras's consumer price index up by 1.4%–3.7%, citing CEPAL projections, and urged the government to boost public and productive investment to cushion household incomes.

Congressman Hugo Noé Pino of the Libre party warned that the El Niño drought's damage to food production will push inflation above 5% in the second half of 2026, and called for contingency plans to protect food security in hardest-hit regions.

A northern Honduras fuel distributor says crude-oil prices will continue climbing for at least two weeks due to Middle East tensions, though he notes price controls are managed through international regulations to prevent sharp spikes in the basic basket and inflation.

Honduras's basic food basket has risen to about L16,000 (roughly $640) per month, exceeding the average minimum wage of L14,917, forcing many families to send at least two earners to work just to cover food costs.

Honduras's basic food basket increased from L14,500 to L16,000 between December 2025 and July 2026, according to Artículo 19, with meat, dairy, beans, and vegetables driving the cost surge and squeezing household buying power.

Economist Julio Raudales says the Central Bank of Honduras's inflation target of 5–6% is reachable if monetary policy remains disciplined and external shocks do not occur, though he cautions that balancing price control with economic growth remains a key challenge.

Economist Ismael Zepeda says the Central Bank will struggle to control inflation through monetary policy given international conflicts raising fuel costs and a planned electricity rate increase in the third quarter, though the bank aims to absorb excess money supply and cut monetary emissions by 11%.