Central Bank

An economist argues the Central Bank's strategy of allowing lempira devaluation to accumulate international reserves is driving inflation and eroding household purchasing power, despite reserves of $11.5 billion being ample to stabilize the currency.

BCH President Roberto Lagos and Paraguay's central bank chief Carlos Carvallo addressed questions on inflation and monetary policy during the Central Bank of Honduras's annual Economic Perspectives Conference in Tegucigalpa.

BCH president Roberto Lagos projects inflation will continue easing to about 5.5% in August from nearly 6%, while international reserves reached a record $11.7 billion, equivalent to seven months of import coverage and strengthening financial stability.

The Central Bank of Honduras forecasts full-year 2026 GDP growth of 3 to 4 percent, supported by agricultural exports and household consumption, though the outlook depends heavily on global oil and coffee prices and international trade tensions.

The Central Bank of Honduras auctioned $96.2 million in its August 3 currency sale, setting the weighted average exchange rate at L26.8003 per dollar for August 4.

Honduras's net international reserves reached $11.7 billion as of July 31, up $1.4 billion since late January, providing 6.8 months of import coverage, the central bank reported.

Honduras's Central Bank is implementing measures to absorb excess money circulating in the economy and stabilize resources, as inflation reached 5.83% year-over-year in June, while president Roberto Lagos cited supply-driven pressures and limited scope for interest-rate policy.

Economist Ismael Zepeda says the Central Bank will struggle to control inflation through monetary policy given international conflicts raising fuel costs and a planned electricity rate increase in the third quarter, though the bank aims to absorb excess money supply and cut monetary emissions by 11%.

Central Bank President Roberto Lagos said Honduras holds $11.5 billion in international reserves—enough to cover 6.7 months of imports—and projects 3.5% economic growth this year, though he cautioned that energy-sector reforms are needed to attract investment and push growth above 4%.