Inflation

Experts warn that a recent increase in power tariffs will drive up costs for basic foods, dairy, meat, and other essentials, as 85–90% of consumer products rely on electricity in production and storage.

Year-over-year inflation in Honduras reached 6.09% in May, up 1.55 percentage points from a year earlier, driven mainly by rising fuel prices that accounted for nearly half the overall price increase.

Central Bank President Roberto Lagos said Honduras must prepare monetary and fiscal measures aligned with IMF recommendations to contain inflation, while currently monitoring how fuel prices ripple through the economy; he indicated no immediate rate adjustment is needed given US Federal Reserve policy.

Honduras's electric utility regulator approved a third rate increase for 2026 effective July 1, expected to raise bills 5–10% through September, pushing year-to-date increases to nearly 15% amid inflation above target and lempira depreciation.

Honduras's basic food basket has risen more than 700 lempiras (about $28) since January, according to academic economists.

An economist at Fosdeh argues that recent declines in diesel prices justify revising public transport fares that were raised months ago as a temporary measure tied to fuel costs.

Economist Amparo Canales welcomed fuel price reductions as temporary relief but stressed that savings must translate into lower consumer prices broadly, urging authorities to monitor for pricing abuses.

A UNAH food-security monitor reports sustained increases in basic food costs—beef, pork, eggs, oil, and beans up 1–10 lempiras per item in early June—outpacing minimum-wage gains and pushing an estimated 2.2 million Hondurans toward food insecurity by year-end.

Economist Guillermo Matamoros says the Central Bank of Honduras must implement mitigation measures as inflation indicators suggest it will exceed the bank's target range, though May data shows a slowdown from April.

Honduras's central bank forecasts year-over-year inflation of 4.98% by December 2026, declining to the bank's target range of 3.0%–5.0% by May 2028.

Honduras's average import price for fuel climbed 24.2% month-over-month in April 2026, a slower pace than March's 32.9% increase, tracking crude-oil and derivative prices from the Gulf.

Former Liberal Party leader Yani Rosenthal says fallout from a foreign war has pushed Honduras's inflation beyond the Central Bank's target range, squeezing households and forcing the government to subsidize fuel and energy costs.

A consumer-advocacy group reported that at least 16 staple foods rose in price over the weekend, with beans reaching 120 lempiras (about $4.80) per measure and eggs up to 110 lempiras (about $4.40) per carton, alongside price increases in chayote, potatoes, peppers, and broccoli, blamed on weather, inflation, and Middle East conflicts.

Congressman Marco Midence, a former finance minister, warned that climbing oil prices driven by Middle East conflict will push inflation higher in Honduras, urging the government to adopt energy efficiency measures and stabilize food prices through state programs.

Egg prices in Honduras have climbed this weekend to 95 lempiras for large cartons, 90 for medium, and 80 for small, driven by increases in feed and labor expenses.

Egg prices jumped at Tegucigalpa's main markets over the weekend, with large eggs rising from 85 to 95 lempiras per 30-unit carton, as sellers cite higher production costs and limited large-egg supply.

Tradable goods prices in Honduras increased 0.81% month-over-month in May, driven by external shocks from geopolitical factors that pushed up fuel prices.

Year-over-year inflation in Honduras reached 6.09% in May, driven partly by Middle East conflict impacts, temporarily exceeding the central bank's medium-term tolerance range of 4.00% plus or minus 1 percentage point.

Business leaders warn that persistent inflation and rising energy costs remain the top concerns for Honduras's economy, with April's year-over-year inflation reaching 5.56% and Middle East instability driving up fuel prices.

Economists say Honduras should revise its monetary program to counter inflation driven by fuel-price increases, and restructure the state power utility ENEE to reduce losses, cut political interference, and stabilize the electricity system.

The vice president of the Tegucigalpa Chamber of Commerce warned that while Honduras has made macroeconomic progress, inflation, insecurity, unemployment, and extortion continue to prevent those gains from improving living standards for ordinary Hondurans.

Honduras's private sector council COHEP reports 4% IMAE growth driven by agroindustry and remittances, while warning that 3.12% inflation pressured by transport costs and climate risks to agriculture remain key challenges alongside IMF agreement progress and floating debt monitoring.

COHEP's May 2026 economic bulletin shows 4% accumulated GDP-activity growth through March, 3.12% inflation (transport up 10.55%), a pending $245 million IMF disbursement expected in late June, and government floating debt exceeding L 24.6 billion (about $985 million), or 2.4% of GDP.