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A UNAH economist warns that termination of Temporary Protected Status for approximately 50,000 Hondurans in the US could result in a gradual decline in remittances, potentially totaling $200 million annually if affected migrants lose formal employment and income capacity.

The Central Bank of Honduras forecasts full-year 2026 GDP growth of 3 to 4 percent, supported by agricultural exports and household consumption, though the outlook depends heavily on global oil and coffee prices and international trade tensions.

Honduras's national university economic institute forecasts the lempira will weaken to 27.15 per dollar by end-2026 and 27.98 per dollar by end-2027, a slower pace than 2025's 4.16% decline, while international reserves remain strong at 11.45 billion dollars.

Remittances to Honduras rose 13.2% to $5.29 billion in the first five months of 2026, the fastest growth among the three Northern Triangle countries, according to International Organization for Migration data.

Honduras received $6.51 billion in family remittances in the first six months of 2026, a 12.3% increase from the same period in 2025, with over 85% coming from the United States and mothers receiving 38.6% of the total.

Moody's confirmed Honduras's B1 sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook for the next 12 months, but warned that crime, political polarization, and weak institutions threaten the economy, while remittances remain a crucial economic pillar despite stricter US migration policies.

The International Monetary Fund's board approved Honduras's fourth and fifth program reviews, unlocking a $242 million disbursement and bringing total IMF funding to $725 million of a $847 million package, though the IMF flagged missed targets on electrical utility arrears and urged faster energy-sector reform.

A UNAH finance professor says remittances—about 30% of GDP—sustain Honduras's currency market and millions of families but are mostly spent on consumption rather than productive investment, and the country should redirect them toward long-term economic growth.