Inflation

Honduras's monthly inflation rate dropped to 0.19% in June 2026, the lowest for that month since 2020 and down 0.63 percentage points from May's 0.82%, marking the second consecutive month of decline.

A Fosdeh economist warns that roughly 37 billion lempiras in unaccounted money emitted by the previous administration could stoke inflation, though he notes that inflation stems from multiple causes including import dependence, fuel costs, and climate-driven agricultural shortfalls.

Year-over-year inflation in Honduras eased to 5.83% in June, moving toward the central bank's medium-term target range of 4.00% plus or minus 1 percentage point.

Roberto Lagos, president of the Central Bank of Honduras, said July inflation data should show a deceleration, and the bank will review monetary-policy instruments to reduce excess money supply without harming credit growth, which has risen 6.7% in the first seven months of 2026.

The Honduran lempira has depreciated to over 26.87 per dollar in sales, with economists and civil organizations warning that the currency weakness is driving inflation and raising the cost of living.

Honduras's basic food basket jumped 800 lempiras (about $32) in a year, a 6.16% increase driven by higher meat and fruit costs, while drought affecting 75 municipalities threatens to push 2.8 million Hondurans into food insecurity by year's end.

The Honduran central bank will overhaul its monetary program following the IMF's successful review of Honduras's economic plan, which unlocks a disbursement of roughly $240 million and aims to move toward a more flexible exchange market while maintaining inflation control.

Economist Amparo Canales warns that rising electricity rates risk setting off cascading inflation and further increasing the cost of living for Hondurans.

A consumer-defender monitoring shows nine of eleven staple products increased in price over the past week, led by beans and eggs, while only two items fell, prompting authorities to watch for speculation.

Rafael Medina, former head of Tegucigalpa's Chamber of Commerce, urged oil companies and transporters to pass falling global fuel prices to consumers quickly, noting that inflation jumped nearly 1.5 percentage points above year-ago levels partly because of earlier fuel-cost increases.

Experts warn that a recent increase in power tariffs will drive up costs for basic foods, dairy, meat, and other essentials, as 85–90% of consumer products rely on electricity in production and storage.

Year-over-year inflation in Honduras reached 6.09% in May, up 1.55 percentage points from a year earlier, driven mainly by rising fuel prices that accounted for nearly half the overall price increase.

Central Bank President Roberto Lagos said Honduras must prepare monetary and fiscal measures aligned with IMF recommendations to contain inflation, while currently monitoring how fuel prices ripple through the economy; he indicated no immediate rate adjustment is needed given US Federal Reserve policy.

Honduras's electric utility regulator approved a third rate increase for 2026 effective July 1, expected to raise bills 5–10% through September, pushing year-to-date increases to nearly 15% amid inflation above target and lempira depreciation.

Honduras's basic food basket has risen more than 700 lempiras (about $28) since January, according to academic economists.

An economist at Fosdeh argues that recent declines in diesel prices justify revising public transport fares that were raised months ago as a temporary measure tied to fuel costs.

Economist Amparo Canales welcomed fuel price reductions as temporary relief but stressed that savings must translate into lower consumer prices broadly, urging authorities to monitor for pricing abuses.

A UNAH food-security monitor reports sustained increases in basic food costs—beef, pork, eggs, oil, and beans up 1–10 lempiras per item in early June—outpacing minimum-wage gains and pushing an estimated 2.2 million Hondurans toward food insecurity by year-end.

Economist Guillermo Matamoros says the Central Bank of Honduras must implement mitigation measures as inflation indicators suggest it will exceed the bank's target range, though May data shows a slowdown from April.

Honduras's central bank forecasts year-over-year inflation of 4.98% by December 2026, declining to the bank's target range of 3.0%–5.0% by May 2028.

Honduras's average import price for fuel climbed 24.2% month-over-month in April 2026, a slower pace than March's 32.9% increase, tracking crude-oil and derivative prices from the Gulf.

Former Liberal Party leader Yani Rosenthal says fallout from a foreign war has pushed Honduras's inflation beyond the Central Bank's target range, squeezing households and forcing the government to subsidize fuel and energy costs.

A consumer-advocacy group reported that at least 16 staple foods rose in price over the weekend, with beans reaching 120 lempiras (about $4.80) per measure and eggs up to 110 lempiras (about $4.40) per carton, alongside price increases in chayote, potatoes, peppers, and broccoli, blamed on weather, inflation, and Middle East conflicts.

Congressman Marco Midence, a former finance minister, warned that climbing oil prices driven by Middle East conflict will push inflation higher in Honduras, urging the government to adopt energy efficiency measures and stabilize food prices through state programs.

Egg prices in Honduras have climbed this weekend to 95 lempiras for large cartons, 90 for medium, and 80 for small, driven by increases in feed and labor expenses.

Egg prices jumped at Tegucigalpa's main markets over the weekend, with large eggs rising from 85 to 95 lempiras per 30-unit carton, as sellers cite higher production costs and limited large-egg supply.

Tradable goods prices in Honduras increased 0.81% month-over-month in May, driven by external shocks from geopolitical factors that pushed up fuel prices.

Year-over-year inflation in Honduras reached 6.09% in May, driven partly by Middle East conflict impacts, temporarily exceeding the central bank's medium-term tolerance range of 4.00% plus or minus 1 percentage point.

Business leaders warn that persistent inflation and rising energy costs remain the top concerns for Honduras's economy, with April's year-over-year inflation reaching 5.56% and Middle East instability driving up fuel prices.

Economists say Honduras should revise its monetary program to counter inflation driven by fuel-price increases, and restructure the state power utility ENEE to reduce losses, cut political interference, and stabilize the electricity system.