El Nino

Honduras's disaster agency is tracking two areas in the Pacific with 80% and 60% probability of cyclone formation, while Hurricane Lala moves westward posing no immediate threat to Honduras.

Through July 2026, 10 of 25 weather stations recorded their lowest rainfall since 2022, triggering food insecurity and water rationing across the dry corridor, with experts warning of crisis if rains fail in September and October.

The agricultural marketing institute reports Honduras holds 120,000 quintals (about 5,400 metric tons) of beans and 76,000 quintals (about 3,400 metric tons) of corn in strategic reserves, with new harvests expected in 20 days and a 25% discount on basic grains coming through state-run stores.

After months of drought linked to El Niño, Honduras's national weather center predicts significantly heavier rainfall beginning in early September, offering relief to drought-stricken agricultural regions and food-insecure families.

Honduras's shrimp producers face mounting losses from drought-driven higher salinity in ponds, production costs up 15–18%, and depressed international prices worsened by Ecuadorian oversupply, threatening employment in the southern region.

A 14-member Honduran delegation of government officials and private-sector representatives is in Israel to study water management, drip-irrigation systems, and dairy-production technologies to address El Niño drought impacts, following President Nasry Asfura's January visit to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

A record-strength El Niño phenomenon will inhibit tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic and Caribbean during the peak hurricane season (August 15–October 15) through intensified wind shear and Saharan dust, though experts caution that some storms may still develop, particularly in late August and mid-October.

A severe drought linked to El Niño has killed over 200 cattle, wiped out grain harvests, and significantly reduced milk and meat production in major farming regions, with grain losses estimated at 2–3 million quintals (about 90,000–135,000 metric tons) of corn and beans.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization called on Central American countries to strengthen strategic grain reserves to protect food security during the expected 2026–2027 El Niño, which forecasters say will bring reduced rainfall, more frequent droughts, and crop damage across the region.

Congressman Hugo Noé Pino of the Libre party warned that the El Niño drought's damage to food production will push inflation above 5% in the second half of 2026, and called for contingency plans to protect food security in hardest-hit regions.

Climate experts say El Niño will intensify between October and November, bringing little relief to Honduras's drought-stricken dry corridor, where farmers report near-total crop losses and warn the crisis will persist for decades without adaptation measures.

The National Autonomous University of Honduras warns that rainfall could drop 30–40% below average starting in October across the Dry Corridor, the south, and Tegucigalpa as El Niño strengthens, threatening water supplies and the autumn harvest.

Drought linked to El Niño has pushed Honduras's disaster agency (COPECO) to place 75 municipalities in the dry corridor under indefinite yellow alert, while 49 remain on green alert and 113 are under monitoring for reduced rainfall across six departments.

An integrated food-security analysis projects that 157,000 people across Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala in the Rio Lempa border region will face acute hunger from July through October 2026, driven by seasonal grain depletion, inflation, and El Niño drought risk.

Congress unanimously approved a measure requiring the emergency agency Copeco, the Agriculture Ministry, and the municipal association Amhon to report within two weeks on drought conditions affecting 75 municipalities in the Dry Corridor, where El Niño has cut rainfall by half.

Honduras is spending 62 million lempiras (roughly $2.5 million) to aid 75 municipalities hit by El Niño-driven drought, with 38 facing the highest food-security risks and receiving priority support for water, food, health care, and irrigation.

Honduras's emergency agency raised drought alerts across 237 of the country's 298 municipalities due to reduced rainfall linked to El Niño, with 75 municipalities in the dry corridor placed under yellow alert indefinitely.

Cenaos forecasters say the canícula — a mid-summer lull within the rainy season — combined with moderate El Niño conditions will reduce, but not eliminate, rainfall across Honduras from around July 15 to August 15, with high temperatures and only scattered light showers expected.

Climate experts warn that El Niño strengthening could prolong the dry season (canícula) from its usual six weeks to 45–60 days, reducing rainfall by 40–60% and straining water supplies, agriculture, and hydroelectric power across Honduras, with Tegucigalpa's reservoirs at critical levels.

Authorities are considering upgrading drought alerts from green to yellow for 75 municipalities in the Dry Corridor and possibly adding 40 more, as recent rains have failed to reverse critical water deficits affecting drinking water, agriculture, and forest-fire risk.

Honduras's National Center for Atmospheric, Oceanographic and Seismic Studies (Cenaos) says dry conditions will dominate the coming days with no significant weather system bringing heavy rain, offering relief to regions like Olancho and Gracias a Dios that recently suffered flooding.

The Agriculture Ministry announced a L140-million investment (about $5.6 million USD) to rehabilitate irrigation districts across Honduras, aiming to improve water efficiency, strengthen farm production, and help farmers withstand droughts and climate variability.

The World Meteorological Organization projects a rapid shift to strong El Niño conditions from July through September 2026, bringing above-normal temperatures and irregular rainfall that officials warn could trigger drought stress on crops, water supplies, and energy demand in vulnerable southern and western departments.

A regional assessment projects that 25,500 people in the border department of Ocotepeque could face severe food insecurity between July and October 2026 as corn and bean reserves deplete, prices rise, and El Niño threatens drought across Central America's dry corridor.

A grain producer warns that an extended dry season from mid-July through early October, driven by climate change and El Niño, could reduce maize and bean output by roughly two million quintals (about 90,000 metric tons) in the dry corridor, deepening food insecurity for subsistence farming families.

Agricultural leaders recommend Honduran smallholder farmers postpone planting until at least September due to a prolonged dry season and a forecast 40% rainfall deficit linked to a strong El Niño pattern, which threatens six drought-vulnerable departments.

Honduras's largest power plant, El Cajón, which supplies about 30% of the nation's electricity, is at risk of forced shutdowns due to aging equipment past its useful life and delays in purchasing critical replacement parts, engineers warn.

A forestry engineer warns that El Niño arriving earlier than usual from June through September will reduce water supplies for drinking and power generation, harm planting of beans and corn, and increase wildfire risk across Honduras.

Honduras's atmospheric agency confirmed the onset of an extreme El Niño phase, potentially bringing prolonged drought, high temperatures, and water scarcity that could affect agriculture, livestock, hydroelectric power, and drinking water for millions of Hondurans over the next year.

A tropical wave moving across Honduras on Monday will bring scattered showers up to 20 millimeters in the eastern and central mountain regions, but El Niño conditions will limit relief from the ongoing water deficit.